Dina Esfandiary: Iran deal is the best outcome possible

27 Novembre 2013 , Rédigé par ileridefense

There has already been some scepticism about the deal struck on the weekend between Western powers and Iran over Tehran's nuclear programme. In an article in the National, IISS Research Associate Dina Esfandiary tackles the arguments against the interim, six-month agreement, suggesting that it is 'the best result anyone in the region could have reasonably aimed for'.

Critics say the deal offered Iran sanctions relief and did not get enough for it. Gulf countries, in particular, have been concerned that such a deal should do enough to keep them safe. 'But they were hoping for more than Iran could be expected to give away,' our research associate contends. 'So the negotiators aimed for the next best thing.'

She lists the benefits of the deal: Iran has agreed to a pause in its enrichment of uranium to 20%, will not expand its stockpile of 3.5% enriched uranium and will be prevented from working on additional centrifuges and facilities.

Furthermore, the deal rolls back some of Iran's nuclear programme: Tehran must convert or dilute its stockpiles of 20% enriched uranium, dramatically extending the timeline for use of the material for weapons manufacture. It also allows for unprecedented intrusive monitoring of Iran's entire programme.

'This agreement makes it impossible for the Iranians to make any further progress toward making a nuclear weapon in the next six months. No deal would have meant no suspension and therefore no chance of stopping the programme.'

Dina points out that a diplomatic solution always stood a much better chance of resolving the situation in the long term than military action, which would only ever delay Tehran's nuclear programme.

'Opponents of a deal say we should keep up pressure on Iran via sanctions,' she writes. But 'sanctions alone would not stop the programme. The point of any sanctions was not ... to impede the actual conduct of the nuclear programme, but it was – and is – to put pressure on Tehran to make a deal. They are a bargaining chip. This deal is the best result we could have reasonably expected those sanctions to provide.'

The nuclear deal raises the possibility of engaging Iran on other issues, including Syria. It also strengthens Iran’s moderate new president, Hassan Rouhani.

Admittedly the agreement 'has not erased all reasonable worries about Iran'. However, paraphrasing US Secretary of State John Kerry, Dina concludes'‘those who are dissatisfied with this deal have a duty to suggest a better idea'.

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